Speak Out: Smidgeon or scintilla?

Posted by rocknroll on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 10:03 AM:

Obama claimed not a "smidgeon" of evidence about the IRS targeting conservative groups. Chuck Schumer used "scintilla". I found this in my email with no known mathematician/author to give credit to. Now I'm better with a No. 2 pencil but this seems about right:

The odds of winning the Florida lottery are 1 in 22,957,480.

The odds of winning the Powerball is 1 in 175,223,510.

The odds of winning Mega Millions is 1 in 258,890,850.

The odds of a disk drive failing in any given month are roughly one in 36. The odds of two different drives failing in the same month are roughly one in 36 squared, or 1 in about 1,300. The odds of three drives failing in the same month is 36 cubed or 1 in 46,656.

The odds of seven different drives failing in the same month (like what happened at the IRS when they received a letter asking about emails targeting conservative and pro Israeli groups) is 37 to the 7th power = 1 in 78,664,164,096 (that's over 78 Billion).

In other words, the odds are greater that you will win the Florida Lottery 342 times than having those seven IRS hard drives crashing in the same month.

Now,are those "smidgeon" or "scintilla" odds?

Replies (16)

  • Rock,

    I also have seen that e-mail. Don't know if or not it is factual, but the odds of having 7 hard drives in the IRS fail within a month when all are related to a Congressional Investigation seem about right.

    -- Posted by Have Wheels Will Travel - ΑΩ on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 10:08 AM
  • It depends on what the definition of "is" is... :-)

    I think those odds pale in comparison to the odds that Bowe Bergdahl will be convicted of desertion since Obama freed those top terrorists and took heat over it.

    -- Posted by not_sorry on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 10:09 AM
  • An article on hard drive failure rates by a respected source. Don't think it has anything to do with the IRS "statistics" but educational none the less.

    http://www.pcworld.com/article/129558/article.html

    It would be my opinion that the survey being passed around may be based on nothing... however it does point out that the hard drive failure of one IRS employee of interest and then the subsequent failure of 6 more drives on the desks of people having e-mail contact with her are nothing more than a cover up. A conversation with my old company's contract service IT company's owner a few weeks ago, a man who I have known, used and trusted since the 80's, claims he could have retrieved the data and I believe him.

    The IRS debacle is just another government cover-up.

    -- Posted by Have Wheels Will Travel - ΑΩ on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 10:56 AM
  • Why don't some of you geniuses on here call your congressman, if you know who that is, and suggest they hire an expert who retrieves hard drive info. Probably because they know even if they retrieve them, it will be another failure to try and discredit anyone they disagree with politically. Darrel Issa is nothing but a low life who has been implicated in many questionable acts in California.

    -- Posted by left turn on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 11:17 AM
  • Why don't some of you geniuses on here call your congressman....-- Posted by left turn on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 11:17 AM

    I shouldn't have to call my congressman to get emails retrieved that the IRS has now destroyed. If their was nothing to them and there is nothing to the story on the IRS why won't they ( Lois Lerner ) just testify freely about what they know. No need to blame Issa for trying to do his job. More blame to the IRS and Obama for not being more forthcoming, if their is nothing to hide then answer the questions.

    -- Posted by semofan23 on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 11:45 AM
  • "spillin' the jug"

    rocknroll, Suggest you lay off the "jug".

    Worth repeating because you obviously are under the influence of the "jug".

    -- Posted by persnickety on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 11:55 AM
  • 1 in a couple thousand,nil? I guess that would be a speck or shred then. Pretty good work tho.

    -- Posted by rocknroll on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 3:29 PM
  • Gripe, gripe, gripe.

    -- Posted by Dexterite1 on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 5:09 PM
  • More Lost Emails: FEC Destroyed Hard Drive of Ex-Lerner Employee

    Tuesday, 15 Jul 2014 12:17 PM

    By Melanie Batley

    In addition to the destruction of former IRS official Lois Lerner's computer hard drive, the Federal Election Commission recycled the hard drive of one of her former employees, adding to the list of emails that have gone missing in relation to the IRS's targeting of conservative groups.

    In a letter to the FEC, House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Darrell Issa and committee member Jim Jordan blasted the destruction of FEC attorney April Sands' hard drive, saying it has hindered the investigation.

    "The FEC's failure to retain Ms. Sands' hard drive prevented the FEC Office of Inspector General from fully pursuing appropriate criminal sanctions for Ms. Sands' admitted violation of federal law," the letter said. "Like the IRS's destruction of Lois Lerner's hard drive, the FEC's recycling of Ms. Sands' hard drive may have also destroyed material responsive to Freedom of Information Act and congressional oversight requests."

    Sands resigned from the FEC in April after admitting to violating the Hatch Act, which bans executive branch employees from engaging in partisan political activities on federal time or at federal facilities.

    She also had a history of tweeting criticism of Republicans while praising President Barack Obama, the Daily Caller reported.

    "I just don't understand how anyone but straight white men can vote Republican. What kind of delusional rhetorical [sic] does one use?" Sands, who is black, wrote in a tweet on June 4, 2012.

    A tweet by Sands on May 1, 2012, said, "Dear every single Republican ever, When will U learn that Barack Hussein Obama is simply smarter than U? Stand down, Signed #Obama2012 #p2."

    And in a message on Aug. 25, 2012, Sands called Republicans her "enemy."

    It is unclear whether Sands and Lerner communicated after Lerner's move to the IRS, the Daily Caller noted, but the Oversight Committee letter points out that Lerner was known to have communicated with other FEC employees after her move.

    -- Posted by FreedomFadingFast on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 6:25 PM
  • The IRS debacle is just another government cover-up.-- Posted by Have Wheels Will Travel - ÁÙ on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 10:56 AM

    Wheels: It's Watergate all over again....we will be seeing Pres Pinky waving to the TV cameras as he boards Air Force One heading for Chicago in disgrace as did Tricky Dick who also thought that a cover up would work.

    -- Posted by Truth Slinger on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 8:42 PM
  • semo471, I'd be willing to put a lot of money on that. I don't think there is an Obama cover up, but if there was, this congress is too stupid to get to the bottom of it. Let's move on to another made up scandal. This one has worn out it's welcome.

    -- Posted by left turn on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 11:04 PM
  • Criminal acts have been committed by this bunch they are making every attempt to cover a crime up they know that. Lerner needs to be indicted period she has already committed perjury before congress needs to stop playing around with this thing hard drive this and hard drive that the crime has already been committed start indicting some people and at that point the truth will start coming out as the birds will start singing.

    -- Posted by swampeastmissouri on Wed, Jul 16, 2014, at 7:37 AM
  • -- Posted by left turn on Tue, Jul 15, 2014, at 11:04 PM

    Left: Nixon probably said the same thing in order to get the heat off of him, didn't work.

    -- Posted by Truth Slinger on Wed, Jul 16, 2014, at 8:00 AM
  • A good example of "smidgeon" would be: There is a smidgeon of honesty in Pres Pinky's administration.

    -- Posted by Truth Slinger on Wed, Jul 16, 2014, at 8:01 AM
  • Semo,that's giving O'boy waaayy too much credit.

    -- Posted by rocknroll on Wed, Jul 16, 2014, at 11:46 PM
  • lefty: There is no cooperation from Holder the AG why of course not he is protecting all of it I wonder why? no doubt probable cause is there this is no joke it is serious business you can not cover for these people if they have violated the law and the evidence already reflects that. This is not a matter whether you are a democrat or republican this is a matter of the law of the land. I can remember Obama say in May of 2013 ordering the justice department to have a report on his desk within 90 days well nothing was completed by Holder in 90 days this is July of 2014 over a year ago like everything in this administration it is all talk.

    -- Posted by swampeastmissouri on Thu, Jul 17, 2014, at 6:16 AM

Respond to this thread